{"id":5084566,"date":"2018-08-22T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-08-22T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ctlatinonews.com\/op-ed-four-reasons-why-anti-trump-latino-voters-wont-swing-the-midterms\/"},"modified":"2018-08-22T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2018-08-22T04:00:00","slug":"op-ed-four-reasons-why-anti-trump-latino-voters-wont-swing-the-midterms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/2018\/08\/22\/op-ed-four-reasons-why-anti-trump-latino-voters-wont-swing-the-midterms\/","title":{"rendered":"Op-Ed: Four Reasons Why Anti-Trump Latino Voters Won&#039;t Swing The Midterms"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>\u00a0<\/h3>\n<p>Photo credit: https:\/\/newstaco.com\/2016\/10\/25\/this-is-the-moment-of-truth-for-latino-voters\/<br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/steffen-w-schmidt-527236\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Steffen W. Schmidt<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/iowa-state-university-1322\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Iowa State University<\/a><\/em><\/h3>\n<p>The Democratic Party shouldn&#8217;t count on Latinos swinging many midterm races their way this year.<br \/>\nApproximately 27.3 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote in November&#8217;s midterm elections\u201412 percent of all eligible voters, according to the\u00a0Pew Research Center.<br \/>\nDemocrats\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc12.com\/content\/news\/Mid-Michigan-Latino-community-reacts-to-Trumps-zero-tolerance-policy-485866601.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hope<\/a>\u00a0that this big bloc of voters will punish Republicans for President Donald Trump&#8217;s anti-immigrant policies. They are courting Latinos in red states like\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctpost.com\/news\/article\/Arizona-Democrats-hope-to-ride-blue-wave-in-13151798.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Arizona<\/a>\u00a0and Florida.<br \/>\nBut the so-called &#8220;Latino vote&#8221; has always been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.visaliatimesdelta.com\/story\/opinion\/2016\/11\/18\/latino-voting-bloc-just-myth-complicated\/94031548\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more promise than reality<\/a>\u00a0for Democrats. My\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sws298.wixsite.com\/steffenschmidt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">political science research<\/a>\u00a0indicates that a Latino blue wave is not likely to tip the upcoming election in Democrats&#8217; favor.<\/p>\n<h2>1. Eligibility and Turnout<\/h2>\n<p>To start with, immigration status limits the political impact of this group.<br \/>\nAccording to U.S. Census Bureau figures, only 44 percent of U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote, a lower proportion than Asian, African-American and white voters.<br \/>\nLatino voter turnout has also been historically low. In the 2016 U.S. election, Pew finds, only 48 percent of eligible Latino voters\u00a0cast a ballot, compared to 65.3 percent of whites and 59.6 percent of blacks.<br \/>\nGerrymandering of congressional districts and onerous voter registration barriers also significantly\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/article\/partisan-gerrymandering-is-still-about-race\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">diminish Latinos&#8217; voting power<\/a>.<br \/>\nSome U.S. Latinos are highly likely to vote, including older voters with a college degree and Cuban-Americans.<br \/>\nBut just one in three voting-aged Latinos under 29 voted in the last presidential election. Turnout was even lower among Latinos with less than a high school diploma.<br \/>\nFully 20 percent of U.S. Latino voters fall into this low-turnout category.<\/p>\n<h2>2. The Location of Swing Districts<\/h2>\n<p>The impact of the Latino vote on Senate and House races in 2018 is likewise limited by geographic factors.<br \/>\nMore than half (52 percent) of all Latinos eligible to vote live in California, Texas and New York. Congressional candidates in these states already understand the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/06\/04\/us\/latino-vote-california.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">power of Latino voters<\/a>, who have been decisive players in at least two dozen districts since the 1980s. Candidates successfully target Latino constituents in their\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/politics\/la-pol-ca-latino-voters-primary-turnout-20180608-htmlstory.html#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">media campaigns and outreach work<\/a>.<br \/>\nIn four big swing states, on the other hand \u2013 Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio \u2013 Latinos make up 5 percent or less of eligible voters.<br \/>\nAs a result, Latino voters may be decisive for Democrats in just a handful of races: those occurring in states with\u00a0competitive districts and significant Latino populations, including Virginia, Florida, Texas, Arizona and California.<br \/>\nIn my view, the Latino vote could help push Democrats to victory in just seven races in five states. These include\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/wtop.com\/local-politics-elections-news\/2018\/06\/virginia-10th-district-democratic-primary-results\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Virginia&#8217;s 10th district<\/a>, in the suburbs of Washington, D.C.; Texas&#8217; southwestern 23rd and suburban 7th districts;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pastemagazine.com\/articles\/2018\/04\/meet-a-competitive-house-race-florida-26th-distric-1.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Florida&#8217;s 26th district<\/a>, which includes Miami; and Arizona&#8217;s\u00a0Tucson-based 2nd district.<\/p>\n<h2>3. Latinos Aren&#8217;t Single-Issue Voters<\/h2>\n<p>The assumption that Latinos outraged by Trump&#8217;s immigration policies will come out en masse to vote against his party reveals\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.houstonchronicle.com\/news\/houston-texas\/houston\/article\/Backlash-builds-over-immigration-but-it-s-12495046.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">another errant assumption<\/a>\u00a0about this voter segment\u2014namely, that all Latinos\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2016\/12\/22\/506347254\/latinos-will-never-vote-for-a-republican-and-other-myths-about-hispanics-from-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">care about<\/a>&#8230;\u2026..<br \/>\n<em><strong>To read full article, please visit: http:\/\/www.latinorebels.com\/2018\/08\/20\/antitrumplatinovoters\/<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 Photo credit: https:\/\/newstaco.com\/2016\/10\/25\/this-is-the-moment-of-truth-for-latino-voters\/ &nbsp; Steffen W. Schmidt, Iowa State University The Democratic Party shouldn&#8217;t count on Latinos swinging many [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[736,989,990],"tags":[1390],"ppma_author":[565],"class_list":["post-5084566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ct-opinion","category-ma-opinion","category-ri-opinion","tag-hispanics-and-midterm-electionslatino-voters"],"acf":[],"mb":[],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":false,"thumbnail":false,"medium":false,"medium_large":false,"large":false,"1536x1536":false,"2048x2048":false},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Jermaine Smith","author_link":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/author\/jay\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"\u00a0 Photo credit: https:\/\/newstaco.com\/2016\/10\/25\/this-is-the-moment-of-truth-for-latino-voters\/ &nbsp; Steffen W. Schmidt, Iowa State University The Democratic Party shouldn&#8217;t count on Latinos swinging many [&hellip;]","authors":[{"term_id":565,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"news-editor","display_name":"News Editor","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"mfb_rest_fields":["title","uagb_featured_image_src","uagb_author_info","uagb_comment_info","uagb_excerpt","authors"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5084566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5084566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5084566\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5084566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5084566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5084566"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/latinonewsnetwork.com\/ctln\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=5084566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}